Focus with the political scientist Ziad Majed on the recent statements of Walid Jumblatt and his attempts to open a new chapter with Syria

BEIRUT, By Nayla Chahla | iloubnan.info - March 19, 2010

On the eve of the fifth anniversary of the formation of March 14 coalition and the Cedar Revolution, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt admitted to al-Jazeera TV having made “unreasonable remarks” about Syrian President Bashar Assad, three years ago. Focus on the statements of Jumblatt, one of the coalition’s key founders, with the political scientist Mr. Ziad Majed.

iloubnan.info: How do you assess the recent statements of MP Walid Jumblatt to al-Jazeera TV?
Ziad Majed: First of all, there are “three dimensions” to understand the positions of Jumblatt:

- The regional dimension: Jumblatt thinks that Damascus-Ryadh reconciliation demands a repositioning in Lebanon and an end of “hostilities” with Damascus as well, especially that the USA are reassessing their relations with Assad’s regime and will probably initiate a kind of opening in the upcoming days (like restoring the US ambassador, activating official visits etc…).

- The national dimension: He thinks that in the event political splits go deeper, the country would be heading towards tensions and confrontations that may be fueled by foreign events linked to Israel, Iran and to Syria, as well as the indictments that the international tribunal may issue regarding the (assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic ndlr) Hariri case, whether against the Syrian regime or a Lebanese group (as stipulated by the Deutsch daily Der Spiegel which evokes involvement of a Hezbollah member thereto for instance). According to him, this necessitates “a domestic security belt” that he seeks installing.

- The situation in southern Mount-Lebanon (in Aley and Shouf districts), and the Druze condition in Lebanon: Jumblatt, whose community is a minority on the national level (and even in his own mountainous stronghold), seeks exits to the encirclement he is facing. On this level, Jumblatt is very “territorial”. His rivals attempted to isolate him geographically and politically, and Hezbollah attacks on May 7, 2008, have sent him a message in this regard. Thus, he wants to be done with this situation.

Now, beyond these reasons, I guess that Jumblatt wants to start a new phase and end some coalitions that he couldn’t come to terms with. He also wishes to prepare his son Taymur to succeed to him in more peaceful context.

Personally, I don’t want to make value judgments, but I guess that some of the meetings and statements relevant to his possible visit to Damascus would not be useful to him, but soil his image as a leader of the Intifada and the Independence (and here we must recall that he was the real leader of this Intifada in 2005). His “pardon” and his “forgiveness” regarding the assassination of his father as voiced to al-Jazeera TV on past March 13, prove the view of a friend who is a jurist when she said Jumblatt’s statements referred to times when justice was private. The victim had, at that time, the right to forgive or to take revenge. We might forget that the public power concept was born whe the community imposed itself in the settlement of conflicts…

Hezbollah said Syrian President Bashar Assad was ready to meet Jumblatt. But does secure such reconciliation especially that Jumblatt had previously insulted Assad in particular?
The reconciliation is part of the aforementioned specific regional and national contexts. However, to my opinion, Walid Jumblatt’s former remarks about Assad were not “slanderous”, because Jumblatt was mad about the Syrian regime like many Lebanese, during the dark years and the wave of assassinations and orchestrated violence against March 14 leaders, parliamentarians, ministers, journalists and militants (from 2004 to 2008). Perhaps, the terms could have been moderated. Still, the terminology was not slanderous at all.

Some parties fear “the 1977 tragic fate to be recalled again in 2010”. Does Jumblatt risk his own life?
I guess circumstances have changed. Kamal Jumblatt headed to Damascus in 1977 as a messenger of defiance and rejection of any Syrian role, either political or namely military, in Lebanon. Walid Jumblatt would go there, this time, to send a message of reconciliation after the Syrian military withdrawal from the country. Thus, I don’t really see any parallelism in this matter. Although, I guess that, deeply, the Syrian regime would never forgive Walid Jumblatt his key role in the Independence uprising…

What are the challenges of the upcoming period, in the light of the quick developments? What would be the next status of Walid Jumblatt?
We are currently in a status quo that risks no rapid evolution, with a political power struggle (and not a popular one) that favors Hezbollah and its allies, due to the situation in the region, the weight of the party of god’s weaponry as well as the influence it has on the domestic political process… Thus, I don’t think that Walid Jumblatt would join March 8 coalition… He will remain in the middle, while keeping on particular ties with Saad Hariri and improving his relations with (Speaker ndlr) Nabih Berri and Hezbollah. As for the rest, there will be much often ups and downs.