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Hezbollah keeps its word through high-cost 'resistance'
BEIRUT, By Rana Moussaoui
AFP - July 15, 2008
 
Its prisoner swap with Israel boosts the standing of Hezbollah which vowed to secure the release of all Lebanese detainees through "resistance," even at a high cost for Lebanon, analysts say. The exchange is set to take place on Wednesday, almost exactly two years after a cross-border raid in which Hezbollah guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers as bargaining chips to demand the releases.

That raid sparked a July-August 2006 war during which more than 1,200 people were killed in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers.

"Israel has set a very dangerous precedent," said Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, author of a book called "Hezbollah: Politics and Religion."

"It actually confirms that the only way (Israel) understands is force and violence," he said. The lesson was that "abduction works. It is effective, and diplomacy is futile."

On Wednesday Israel is to hand over the last five Lebanese detainees it holds in return for the two reservists, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, who were captured in 2006 and are presumed dead by the Israeli government.

"The deal is undoubtedly a victory for Hezbollah, because it was made according to its conditions, while Israel gained nothing," said Nabil Bou Monsef, a political analyst for the pro-government daily An-Nahar. "It has surely become more powerful," he said.

Analysts in Israel are also questioning whether their country is paying too high a price. "This is a very serious strategic mistake by the government," said Ely Karmon, a terrorism expert at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Centre.

Already widely credited for making Israel withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah is now expected to turn its attention to the issue of the disputed Shebaa Farms rather than lay down its arms.

"Hezbollah will play the other cards in their hands. They will talk now about the Shebaa Farms and the issue of airspace violations," Timur Goksel, former spokesman for the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), told AFP.

"They will not run out of issues to keep the pot boiling."

Saad-Ghorayeb agreed with the assessment: "They can say that Israel is still a threat to Lebanon and the region in the absence of a comprehensive peace agreement."

Hezbollah said last month that Lebanon will always need the "resistance," even if Israel hands over the Shebaa Farms, a territory that borders Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

Two years after the Hezbollah-Israel war, Israel says UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which laid down the ceasefire terms was a failure because it has failed to curb arms smuggling to the group.

While the prisoner exchange is being hailed as a victory for Hezbollah, the movement's image on the domestic front has been dented by its deadly seizure of large swathes of west Beirut in street fighting in May that cost 65 lives.

"Hezbollah has lost its role as a resistance group," according to Bou Monsef, referring to the group's claims that its arms were intended only for use against Israel.

Goksel said "Hezbollah needed a success after all the domestic problems... This will certainly divert attention, but it will not wipe it out."

 
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