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Lebanon's urbanization rate at 88.6% by 2020 and 90% by 2030, Beirut's population to reach 2.14 million by 2025

BEIRUT | iloubnan.info - November 23, 2012, 08h43
Photo: Maude Girard
Figures released by the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UNHABITAT) projected Lebanon's urban population as a share of its total population at 88.6% in 2020 and 90% in 2030 relative to urbanization levels of 87.2% in 2010, 86% in 2000 and 83.1% in 1990.
Lebanon's urbanization rate was the fourth highest among 20 Arab countries in each of 1990, 2000 and 2010, and is expected to remain the fourth largest in both 2020 and 2030. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain had higher urbanization levels than those of Lebanon between 1990 and 2010 and will still have higher urbanization rates by 2030.

The United Nations projected Lebanon's urban population at 4.1 million in 2020 and 4.4 million in 2030 relative to 3.7 million in 2010, 3.2 million in 2000 and 2.5 million in 1990. Lebanon's urban population would account for 1.6% of Arab countries' aggregate urban population by 2020 and for 1.4% of the total by 2030. The urban population in Lebanon accounted for 1.9% of the region's total urban population in 2010 and for 2.2% of the total in each of 2000 and 1990.

Further, Lebanon's urban population is projected to grow at a compound annual graph rate (CAGR) of 0.9% between 2010 and 2020 and 0.7% between 2020 and 2030, constituting the lowest CAGRs among Arab countries over both periods.

In comparison, Lebanon's urban population grew at a CAGR of 1.4% during the 2000-10 period and posted the slowest growth among Arab countries; while it grew by a CAGR of 2.8% between 1990 and 2000 and posted the seventh slowest rate in the region.

In parallel, the United Nations projected Beirut's population at 2 million in 2015, 2.1 million in 2020 and 2.14 million in 2025 relative to 1.9 million in 2010, 1.8 million in 2005, 1.5 million in 2000, 1.27 million in 1995 and 1.29 million in 1990. Beirut's population would account for 2.5% of the population of 32 Arab cities in 2015, 2.3% of the total in 2020 and 2.2% of the total in 2025. Beirut's population accounted for 2.6% of the aggregate population of Arab cities in 2010, 2.7% in 2005, 2.6% in 2000, 2.5% in 1995 and 2.9% in 1990.

Further, the UN forecast Beirut's population to grow at a CAGR of 0.97% in between 2010 and 2015, 0.55% during the 2015-20 years and 0.42% during the 2020-25 period. Population growth in Beirut will post the slowest CAGR among 32 Arab cities over the three periods. In comparison, Beirut's population grew at a CAGR of 1.72% between 2005 and 2010, the six slowest among Arab cities; but posted a CAGR of 3.57% between 2000 and 2005, the ninth highest in the region. Also, Beirut's population had a CAGR of 3.19% between 1995 and 2000, the 17th slowest in the region, and a CAGR of -0.39% between 1990 and 1995, the second slowest in the region.

Source: Lebanon This Week, the economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group.
Tags
#Urbanization, #Beirut
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